Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2187
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2187 · SNA → LAS
departs 5:00 PM PT · arrives 6:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
53%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.