Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2221 · LAS → DAL
departs 6:45 PM PT · arrives 11:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 36%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±13 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.73 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.