Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2243
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2243 · LAS → HOU
departs 3:10 PM PT · arrives 8:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Wed 9/30 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 29%
Sat 10/3 23%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.