Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2453
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 2453 · STL → MCI
departs 9:45 PM CT · arrives 10:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 35%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at STL that day
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,420 ft Visibility 4.4 mi Precip 0.12 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.