Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 250
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 250 · HRL → AUS
departs 11:35 AM CT · arrives 12:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 33%
Mon 10/5 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HRL
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↓
HRL usually runs smoothly
↓
11am departures from HRL are usually not late
Weather at each end
HRL (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.