Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2645
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2645 · MCO → HOU
departs 10:20 PM ET · arrives 11:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 58%
Mon 10/5 54%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.73 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.