Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 2783 · MDW → HOU
departs 10:10 AM CT · arrives 12:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 17%
Mon 10/5 15%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.73 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.