Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 278 · LAX → DEN
departs 4:20 PM PT · arrives 7:40 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 39%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 27%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 53% of the time recently
↑
4pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LAX that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.