Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 278 · LAX → LAS
departs 5:30 PM PT · arrives 6:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 26%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 53% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.