Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2812
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 2812 · MDW → MCI
departs 4:05 PM CT · arrives 5:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 31%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −24 pts in 24h
−24 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
4pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 967 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.65 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.