Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 281
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 281 · AUS → DCA
departs 12:25 PM CT · arrives 4:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
12pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.94 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.