Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2820
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 2820 · MDW → MCO
departs 6:35 PM CT · arrives 10:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3 25%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.76 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.