Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2820
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2820 · MDW → MCO
departs 3:50 PM CT · arrives 7:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 87%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.