Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2844
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 2844 · MDW → OMA
departs 6:25 PM CT · arrives 7:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3 20%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±4 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.70 in
OMA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.