Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2844
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2844 · MDW → OMA
departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 6:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Thu 10/1 64%
Fri 10/2 27%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OMA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.