WN 2844 · MDW → TUL

took off 10:36 AM CT · landed 11:58 AM CT (scheduled 10:23 AM CT → 12:16 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TUL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 10am departures from MDW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into TUL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.08 in

TUL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2844 · MDW → TUL

Odds over time

How late did it get to TUL?