Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 2862 · MDW → PHX
departs 6:40 PM CT · arrives 8:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 32%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.94 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.