Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 2863 · MDW → PHX
departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 10:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 27%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
69%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 66% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.