Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 2863 · PHX → ABQ
departs 10:55 PM MT · arrives 1:10 AM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 48%
Mon 10/5 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.