Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3014
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3014 · LAX → OAK
departs 9:00 AM PT · arrives 10:20 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↑
9am departures from LAX are often late
↓
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.