Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3023
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 3023 · MSY → TPA
departs 5:45 PM CT · arrives 8:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 58%
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at MSY that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.