Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3049
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 3049 · RIC → BWI
departs 6:10 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 30%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.