Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3216
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3216 · PHL → BNA
departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 3:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 27%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.