Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3216 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 3216 · PHL → BNA

departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 3:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↑ 2pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,467 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3216 · PHL → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?