Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3226
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3226 · PHL → MDW
departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 8:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 9/30 41%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 31%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±7 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.94 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.