Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3226 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

WN 3226 · PHL → MDW

departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 8:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ 6pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

MDW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3226 · PHL → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?