Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3238
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3238 · MCI → MCO
departs 11:45 AM CT · arrives 3:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 9/30 12%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±8 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
11am departures from MCI are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.77 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.