Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3415 · PWM → MDW
departs 7:40 AM ET · arrives 9:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 7%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
PWM is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from PWM are usually not late
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.