Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3478 · SAN → BNA
departs 6:35 AM PT · arrives 12:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
SAN is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SAN are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.