Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3478 · SAN → BNA
departs 6:50 AM PT · arrives 1:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/1 13%
Fri 10/2 14%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BNA that day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.