Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3514
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3514 · DCA → MCI
departs 8:30 PM ET · arrives 10:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 39%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
8pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.