WN 3546 · MCI → DCA

departs 6:26 PM CT · arrives 10:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility1 mi Precip2.64 in

DCA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3546 · MCI → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?