Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3634
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3634 · SFO → BNA
departs 10:50 PM PT · arrives 5:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±7 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 49% of the time recently
↑
10pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.