Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3634
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3634 · SFO → BNA
departs 10:50 PM PT · arrives 5:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 49% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi forecast at BNA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.