Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3759
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 3759 · SMF → BNA
departs 11:05 PM PT · arrives 5:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 19%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.