Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3793
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3793 · SMF → LAX
departs 8:45 PM PT · arrives 10:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 33%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.