Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3793 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 3793 · SMF → LAX

departs 8:45 PM PT · arrives 10:15 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3793 · SMF → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?