Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3800
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3800 · ELP → PHX
departs 9:30 PM MT · arrives 9:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
43%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
43%
Leave 15+ late
56%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
9pm departures from ELP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.