Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3845 · LAS → ONT
departs 2:20 PM PT · arrives 3:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±6 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ONT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.