Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3845 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 3845 · LAS → ONT

departs 2:20 PM PT · arrives 3:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±4 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3845 · LAS → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?