Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3865 · LAS → SJC
departs 7:35 PM PT · arrives 9:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 41%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.