Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3871
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 3871 · SNA → SMF
departs 4:30 PM PT · arrives 5:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from SNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.