Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3907
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3907 · STL → DCA
departs 3:30 PM CT · arrives 6:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 41%
Sun 10/4 47%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,420 ft Visibility 4.4 mi Precip 0.12 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.