Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3986
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 3986 · STL → TPA
departs 10:05 AM CT · arrives 1:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 14%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 567 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip 0.57 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.