Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3986 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 3986 · STL → TPA

departs 10:05 AM CT · arrives 1:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ TPA is prone to delays

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

↓ 10am departures from STL are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.46 in

TPA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3986 · STL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?