Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4012 · DEN → PIT
departs 10:00 AM MT · arrives 3:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
10am departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.