Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4012 · DEN → PIT
departs 10:05 AM MT · arrives 3:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
10am departures from DEN are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.