Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4075
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4075 · BDL → BWI
departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 6:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3 16%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from BDL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BDL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.