Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4075 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4075 · BDL → BWI

departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 6:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from BDL are often late

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BDL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4075 · BDL → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?