Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4120
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4120 · MDW → LGA
departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 11:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 50%
Mon 10/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
67%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 66% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
67%
Yes 67%
No 33%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
7pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.